Bracketology 101

March Madness brackets do funny things to a person’s head.

For people like me, who know next to nothing about college basketball, the “anyone can win” mentality gives hope that this year could be the year you win your pool. For people who watch college basketball throughout the year, that “insider knowledge” seems like enough to separate you from the rest of the pack and win your pool that way.

Too bad things don’t normally work out like that.

It’s common bracketological theory that you need to pick upsets. Up until last year, that seemed like a safe bet. However, for the first time in history, all four #1 seeds last year made it into the Final Four, which effectively threw that theory out the window.

This year, when it looked as though that was going to happen again – as all #1, #2 and #3 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, and all four #1 seeds made it to the Elite 8 – Michigan State and Villanova upset their respective #1 seeds (Louisville and Pittsburgh) to advance to the Final Four.

So what is a bracketeer supposed to do? Well, there are a few things that even a novice bracketeer can pick up on. First of all, there are inevitably the “upsets” that really aren’t all that… upsetting. Teams that are seeded #9 or #10 could easily beat their first-round opponents; in fact, two #9 and three #10 seeds advanced to the second round this year.

Then, every year, there are the unexpected upsets – those that see #4 or #5 seeds fall. This year, only one #4 seed fell (Wake Forest lost to Cleveland State) but three #12 teams knocked off #5’s (Arizona beat Washington, Wisconsin beat Florida State and Western Kentucky beat Illinois).

How do you know which of these teams to pick? Well, sometimes, it’s blind luck. Had I done any research at all and found out that Cleveland State was the Vikings, I would have picked them (I’m a Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Vikings fan). It might have looked absurd on my bracket, but I wouldn’t have had the Vikings winning a second-round game. Worst case scenario: Wake Forest’s superiority holds up and they advance, so I hope they get knocked out quickly.

Western Kentucky, as obscure as it sounds, is a very strong basketball school. Last year, WKU knocked off fifth-seeded Drake University in the first round, then advanced to the Sweet 16 by knocking off San Diego, a fellow Cinderella story. This year, led by Orlando Mendez-Valdez and A.J. Slaughter, the team not only beat Wake Forest in the first round but was poised to do the same to #4 Gonzaga, until the Bulldogs hit a go-ahead lay-up with only 0.9 seconds on the clock to eliminate WKU. What’s the moral of this story? If you see Western Kentucky on a bracket in the future, don’t hesitate to pick them – regardless of how much of a long shot they may seem.

Here’s a tip that seems obvious (and if you’ve read this far, you know this by now): unless you have some great inside tip, always pick the top three seeds in each region to advance – at least in the first round. No #1 has ever fallen to a #16 (though several teams this year came a little too close for comfort), and only four #2 seeds have fallen to a #15 (with the most recent coming in 2001 when Hampton beat Iowa State).

The hardest part of the tournament to predict is when the games really come down to the wire, and a team like #3 Villanova is playing #6 UCLA. Sure, Villanova was a higher seed, but things still seemed close. At times like these, however, you have to look at external factors. Like what? Consider that Villanova was essentially hosting the match (it was played in Philadelphia) and that home-court advantage should be more than enough to propel them to the next round.

What’s great about bracketology, though, is that even if you follow these guidelines, do your research and make educated guesses, things still might not fall into place. That’s what gives March the madness, if you will, and makes the tournament fun for everyone to watch.